Land-Use Composition and Socio-Economic Dynamics in Sub- Saharan Africa: Evidence from the AfroGrow Project Countries
Journal
12th International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of Environment
Type
conference contribution
Date Issued
2026-04-27
Author(s)
Abstract
Forests and agricultural lands are central not only to environmental sustainability but also to economic development and social wellbeing. The AfroGrow project investigates agroforestry systems in Botswana, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Senegal, and Zambia – countries that we call AfroGrow countries. Agroforestry, understood as the intentional integration of trees and shrubs into crop and livestock systems, is widely promoted for environmental and livelihood benefits. Yet systematic evidence on broader macro-level socio-economic associations of Agroforestry remains limited. This study attempts to fill this gap, examining how variations in forest and agricultural land shares relate to socio-economic outcomes. Forest and agricultural land shares serve as proxies for agroforestry dynamics, albeit at a country level. This approach allows to discover to what extent are land-use compositions associated with agroforestry-related transitions systematically linked to macro-level socio-economic dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Drawing on World Bank data, this study analyses how variations in forest and agricultural land shares relate to selected socio-economic indicators across the six AfroGrow countries. Using regression analysis and country-level time-series data, we identify statistically significant associations between land-use composition and economic, demographic and health-related outcomes.
The findings reveal heterogeneous but systematic patterns. In several countries, changes in forest share are associated with labour market participation, mortality indicators, demographic structure and rural population dynamics. Agricultural land shares correlate with macroeconomic variables including trade flows, financial indicators and sectoral value added. While some associations suggest potential market-driven adjustments, others point to ecosystem-service-related externalities. Notably, correlations are frequently gender-differentiated, with certain employment, mortality and life-expectancy indicators showing distinct patterns for women and men.
Country-level results differ in magnitude and direction. Ethiopia exhibits more limited observable associations due to data constraints, whereas Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Zambia, Botswana and Senegal display broader linkages between land-use composition and socio-economic indicators. Across countries, both positive and negative correlations emerge, underscoring the complexity of land-use transitions and their societal implications.
These findings underscore that land-use change and forestry strategies (LULUCF) are closely intertwined with socio-economic structures beyond traditional macroeconomic measures. Shifts in forest and agricultural land shares are associated not only with GDP and sectoral value added, but also with demographic change, labour force participation and health outcomes. Ignoring these linkages risks overlooking unintended distributional effects or reinforcing existing inequalities.
By systematically mapping macro-level socio-economic responses to land-use dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa, this study contributes to integrated land governance research and evidence-informed agroforestry policy design. The results underline the importance of incorporating gender-sensitive and socio-economic perspectives into land-use planning to ensure that agroforestry and forestry interventions promote equitable and sustainable development.
Drawing on World Bank data, this study analyses how variations in forest and agricultural land shares relate to selected socio-economic indicators across the six AfroGrow countries. Using regression analysis and country-level time-series data, we identify statistically significant associations between land-use composition and economic, demographic and health-related outcomes.
The findings reveal heterogeneous but systematic patterns. In several countries, changes in forest share are associated with labour market participation, mortality indicators, demographic structure and rural population dynamics. Agricultural land shares correlate with macroeconomic variables including trade flows, financial indicators and sectoral value added. While some associations suggest potential market-driven adjustments, others point to ecosystem-service-related externalities. Notably, correlations are frequently gender-differentiated, with certain employment, mortality and life-expectancy indicators showing distinct patterns for women and men.
Country-level results differ in magnitude and direction. Ethiopia exhibits more limited observable associations due to data constraints, whereas Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Zambia, Botswana and Senegal display broader linkages between land-use composition and socio-economic indicators. Across countries, both positive and negative correlations emerge, underscoring the complexity of land-use transitions and their societal implications.
These findings underscore that land-use change and forestry strategies (LULUCF) are closely intertwined with socio-economic structures beyond traditional macroeconomic measures. Shifts in forest and agricultural land shares are associated not only with GDP and sectoral value added, but also with demographic change, labour force participation and health outcomes. Ignoring these linkages risks overlooking unintended distributional effects or reinforcing existing inequalities.
By systematically mapping macro-level socio-economic responses to land-use dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa, this study contributes to integrated land governance research and evidence-informed agroforestry policy design. The results underline the importance of incorporating gender-sensitive and socio-economic perspectives into land-use planning to ensure that agroforestry and forestry interventions promote equitable and sustainable development.
Language
English
HSG Classification
contribution to scientific community
Refereed
Yes
Subject(s)
Division(s)