Bali, Turan G.Turan G.BaliBeckmeyer, HeinerHeinerBeckmeyerMörke, Mathis Rudolf WernerMathis Rudolf WernerMörkeWeigert, FlorianFlorianWeigert2023-04-132023-04-132023https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/10785710.1093/rfs/hhad017Drawing upon more than 12 million observations over the period from 1996 to 2020, we  nd that allowing for nonlinearities signi cantly increases the out-of-sample performance of option and stock characteristics in predicting future option returns. The nonlinear machine learning models generate statistically and economically sizeable pro ts in the long-short portfolios of equity options even after accounting for transaction costs. Although option-based characteristics are the most important standalone predictors, stock-based measures o er substantial incremental predictive power when considered alongside option-based characteristics. Finally, we provide compelling evidence that option return predictability is driven by informational frictions and option mispricing.enjournal article