Gnatzy, TobiasTobiasGnatzyMoser, RogerRogerMoser2023-04-132023-04-132012-05https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/9171010.1016/j.techfore.2011.08.001The article discusses the use of Delphi-based scenarios for the development of business model innovations in emerging markets. Motivated by insights from information processing and institutional theory we present a scenario development process combining a PEST (political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological) and a stakeholder approach. We exemplify its use for the evolving health insurance market in rural India and present how our approach can be used to study possible future developments relevant for business model innovations. Key insights are that NGOs might play a crucial role along with the regulatory support of the Government of India and significant advances in mobile payment technologies.enScenario developmentStrategic analysisDelphiRural IndiaHealth insuranceExpert judgementBusiness model innovationjournal article