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Daniel Buncic
Former Member
Title
Prof. Dr.
Last Name
Buncic
First name
Daniel
Phone
+41 71 224 2604
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1 - 3 of 3
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PublicationEquilibrium Credit: The Reference Point for Macroprudential SupervisorsEquilibrium credit is an important concept because it helps to identify excessive credit provision in an economy. This paper proposes a structural approach to determine equilibrium credit which is based on the long-run through-the-cycle transaction demand for credit. Using a panel data set consisting of 49 high and middle-income countries from 1980 to 2010, we show that there exists considerable variation in the cross-country estimates of the income and price elasticities of credit and that the unit elasticity restriction implicitly imposed by the credit-to-GDP ratio is strongly rejected by the data. This suggests that the credit-to-GDP ratio is not appropriate to measure equilibrium credit. We show further that the cross-sectional variation in the income and price elasticities of credit can be related to a set of relevant economic, financial and institutional development indicators of a country. The main determinants that explain the cross-sectional variation in the income and price elasticities are financial depth, access to financial services, use of capital markets, efficiency and funding of domestic banks, central bank independence, the degree of supervisory integration, and the experience of a financial crisis. As an empirical illustration, we compute equilibrium credit and credit gaps for eleven new EU member states using our structural framework and compare it to credit gaps based on the Basel III approach.Type: journal articleJournal: Journal of Banking and FinanceVolume: 41Issue: 4
Scopus© Citations 11 -
PublicationMacroprudential Stress Testing of Credit Risk: A Practical Approach for Policy MakersDrawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.Type: journal articleJournal: Journal of Financial StabilityVolume: 9Issue: 3
Scopus© Citations 36 -
PublicationAn estimated New Keynesian Policy Model for AustraliaAn open economy New Keynesian policy model for Australia is estimated in this study. We investigate how important external shocks are as a source of macroeconomic fluctuations when compared to domestic ones. The results of our analysis suggest that the Australian business cycle and domestic inflation are most affected by domestic demand and supply shocks, respectively. However, domestic output also appears to be strongly affected by foreign demand shocks and domestic inflation by exchange rate shocks. Domestic variables do not seem to be significantly affected by foreign supply and monetary policy shocks.Type: journal articleJournal: The Economic RecordVolume: 84Issue: 264
Scopus© Citations 24