Jason Rosenthal
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Rosenthal
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Jason
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jason.rosenthal@student.unisg.ch
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+41 71 224 7658

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  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 1st Quarterly Report 2024
    ( 2024-04-18)
    Legge, Stefan
    ;
    Oberholzer, Ronny
    ;
    Rosenthal, Jason
    The Quarterly Reports of the Swiss Trade Monitor document time trends in Switzerland's foreign goods and services trade of the most recent completed quarter. Not only are exports and imports considered in total, but these are broken down to provide a detailed analysis of Switzerland's trade development with its largest trading partners and most important product groups. Due to differences in data release schedules, the first edition of 2024 sheds light on the first quarter of the year for goods trade and the fourth quarter for services trade. Here are some key observations: -- Switzerland's foreign goods trade in Q1 2024 was about eight percent lower than in Q1 of 2023. Both imports and exports fell by eight percent. -- While pharma exports declined significantly, imports grew in a YoY-comparison with Q1 of 2023. Large declines in mineral fuels (HS-27) decreased both imports and exports. This partially reflects price changes. -- While goods trade with nations such as Italy and especially Slovenia flourishes, volumes with key partners such as Germany, France, China, or Spain are declining. -- In contrast to the development observed with goods trade, the report shows that Swiss services trade is growing strongly - both on the export and import side. -- Growth in Swiss services imports is mainly driven by transportation services while exports of ICT and tourism services are growing strongly.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119898
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 2nd Quarterly Report 2024
    ( 2024-07-18)
    Legge, Stefan
    ;
    Oberholzer, Ronny
    ;
    Rosenthal, Jason
    The Quarterly Reports of the Swiss Trade Monitor document time trends in Switzerland's foreign goods and services trade of the most recent completed quarter. Not only are exports and imports considered in total, but these are broken down to provide a detailed analysis of Switzerland's trade development with its largest trading partners and most important product groups. Due to differences in data release schedules, the second edition of 2024 sheds light on the second quarter of the year for goods trade and the first quarter for services trade. Here are some key observations: --- Switzerland's foreign goods trade in Q2 2024 was about six percent higher than in Q2 of 2023. Exports (+8 percent) grew faster than imports (+3 percent). Switzerland's quarterly goods exports surplus reached an all-time high of 16.2 billion Francs. --- Both on the export and import side, pharmaceutical products stand out for high values and growth rates. While chemicals exports increased strongly as well, watch exports continue to stagnate. --- Among trade partners, Slovenia again stands out. Both exports and imports grew at outstanding rates. --- Exports and imports of services in Q1 of 2024 were slightly higher than in 2023 with growth rates of 2 and 5 percent, respectively. --- Growth in Swiss services imports is mainly driven by the United States and transportation services while exports of ICT and tourism services are growing significantly.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/120526
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 12 - Trading with Africa
    ( 2024-05-16)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    Switzerland's trade volume with the African continent amounts to around CHF 20 billion. Swiss exports account for CHF 4 billion and the most important products include pharmaceuticals, machines as well as watches. Swiss imports from Africa are dominated by precious metals, pearls, and mineral fuels. Lesser traded products include cars, articles of apparels and agricultural goods. The largest African partners for Swiss exports are Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, and Algeria. On the import side, South Africa, Ghana, Burkina Faso as well as Mali are the most significant partners. When considering a partner's GDP, trade volumes with Africa are not lower than with other regions. Low trade volumes with Africa can thus primarily be explained by Africa's low economic performance in an international comparison. Gold imports from Africa have been steadily increasing in the last several years. Trade volumes follow the gold price closely, as is the case for most commodities.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/120159
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 10 - China+0 Strategy - An indispensable Nation?
    ( 2024-02-21)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    Switzerland's imports from China constitute approximately 8% of its total imports, and over 5.5% of its exports go to China, indicating a significant but not primary trading partnership. For certain product categories, however, more than 50% of Switzerland's imports are sourced from China, particularly in telecommunications equipment and computing machinery, highlighting a heavy reliance on China for specific goods. Despite some growth in imports from alternative Asian countries (labeled "Altasia" and including Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam), there is no systematic pattern of trade diversification away from China, with the share of Swiss imports from China remaining stable. The data suggest that China continues to be an indispensable trading partner for Switzerland, with any attempts at diversification not significantly reducing reliance on Chinese imports so far.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119517
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 11 - Switzerland's Rise as a Global Coffee Capital
    ( 2024-03-15)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    Despite lacking plantations, Switzerland is a leading global player in the coffee production and trade. It exports more than three billion Swiss Francs worth of coffee per year, making it the most important product of its agricultural exports. International comparisons show that Switzerland is the second largest exporter of coffee in the world, by value. The difference in relative values of 26.8 USD/kg for coffee exports and 5.0 USD/kg for imports is substantial: Coffee experiences a remarkable value added to it during its processing in Switzerland. Switzerland's most important coffee export partners include countries in Europe, such as France, Germany or Spain. More recently, however, a rapid expansion of exports to North America is visible in the data. Its most important import partners include Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica and India. The substantial growth of Switzerland's coffee export sector is most likely driven by Nespresso, a subsidiary of Néstle and the coffee producer famous for popularizing the capsule system.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119690
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 13 - From Grapes to Vapes: Switzerland’s Trade in Alcohol and Nicotine
    ( 2024-06-21)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    Low Trade Volume but Significant Economic Impact: While the trade volume of alcohol, tobacco and nicotine products is relatively small, accounting for just 0.91% and 0.2% of Switzerland's total import and export volumes, respectively, these sectors generate significant federal revenue and have a noteworthy economic influence within the country. Increasing Popularity of Snus and Vapes: The import of newer nicotine products like snus and vapes has been rising, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences. Notably, snus has become increasingly popular since a federal court ruling that acknowledged the risks associated with nicotine but did not consider them a basis for prohibition. Dominant Import Partners for Wine: Italy, France, and Spain are the leading import partners for Swiss wine by volume. Even though Italy leads imports by a wide margin in liters, France is the leader in terms of value, resulting in a significantly higher average price per liter. Strategic Production Location for Tobacco Exports: Switzerland serves as a strategic base for the production of tobacco products by major global companies due to its lenient legislation compared to other countries. This has positioned Switzerland as a key exporter of tobacco and nicotine products (primarily cigarettes), especially to countries with less stringent consumption regulations.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/120398
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 4th Quarterly Report 2023: Goods down Services up
    ( 2024-01-30)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    The Quarterly Reports of the Swiss Trade Monitor document time trends in Switzerland's foreign goods and services trade of the most recent completed quarter. Not only are exports and imports considered in total, but these are broken down to provide a detailed analysis of the trade development with Switzerland's largest trading partners. Due do differences in data release schedules, the fourth edition for 2023 sheds light on the forth quarter of the year for goods trade and the third quarter for services trade. Here are some key observations: -- Switzerland's foreign goods trade in 2023 was about 2.5 percent lower than in the previous year. Imports were almost four percent down, partially due to lower prices. Exports were 1.2 percent below 2022 levels. -- While pharma exports declined significantly, imports increased strongly to a new high. For other major product categories such as chemicals, machines, or manufactured goods both exports and imports are either plateauing or declining. -- While goods trade with nations such as Slovenia or Italy flourishes, volumes with key partners such as Germany, France, China, or Spain are declining. -- In contrast to the development observed with goods trade, the report shows that Swiss services trade is growing strongly - both on the export and import side. -- Swiss services exports and imports are thriving with basically all major partner countries. Tourism exports have recovered fully from the COVID-related dip while transportation services are booming for both trade directions.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119294
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 09 - Abolishing Industrial Tariffs
    ( 2023-12-14)
    Legge, Stefan
    ;
    Oberholzer, Ronny
    ;
    Rosenthal, Jason
    With the abolishment of industrial tariffs as of January 2024, the Swiss Federal Council aims to tackle the high price level in Switzerland compared to its neighboring countries. By eliminating customs duties, imported goods are assumed to become cheaper for consumers and firms, with effects on prices for both intermediate and consumer goods. This report documents the scope of this policy decision. The share of Swiss imports that are duty-free will increase by about 15 percentage points to 95% and about half of all current Swiss customs revenue will be eliminated. Apparel stand out as a product group benefiting the most. With average tariffs of about 5% current import duties are relatively high compared to the import value. We show that especially low-value textiles stand to benefit because Swiss import duties are set on a weight basis. As a result, low-income households should benefit more than high-income ones. The overall impact on consumer prices of the abolishment of tariffs will be small. We need to focus on specific products to find significant potential. But even for textiles, only the cost of goods sold (COGS) are reduced while other costs reflected in consumer prices are unaffected.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119005
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 08 - The Curious Rise of Slovenia
    ( 2023-11-27)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    For a long time, Slovenia was one of the EU member countries with the smallest trade volume with Switzerland. This has changed rapidly within just a few years. Today, Slovenia is Switzerland’s fourth most important partner in the EU for goods trade. For Slovenia, Switzerland is the most important trading partner in the world. The pharmaceutical sector dominates Swiss-Slovenian goods trade. Starting in 2019, HS-30 trade increased from very low levels to more than a billion Swiss Francs a month. In addition, Swiss HS-29 exports (raw pharmaceutical products) add hundreds of millions. We suggest that EU pharma regulation as well as corporate tax motives can explain this development.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119004
  • Publication
    Swiss Trade Monitor - 2nd Quarterly Report 2023: Mixed Signals
    ( 2023-08-25)
    Stefan Legge
    ;
    Ronny Oberholzer
    ;
    Jason Rosenthal
    The Quarterly Reports of the Swiss Trade Monitor document time trends in Switzerland's foreign goods and services trade of the most recent completed quarter. Not only are exports and imports considered in total, but these are broken down to provide a detailed analysis of the trade development with Switzerland's largest trading partners. Here are some key observations from the second edition of 2023: Due to differences it release dates, the latest Swiss trade data cover the first two quarters of 2023 for goods and the first quarter of 2023 for services. While the Q1 data are positive for goods and services, the Q2 data for goods indicate a slowdown. Among goods trade, there is a strong increase for both Italy and Slovenia while the Netherlands and the US stand out with large increases in services trade. For the first time, this report provides detailed country reports that illustrate both goods and services trade for each trading partner.
    Type: discussion paper
    URI: https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/117971