How to make land use policy decisions: Integrating science and economics to deliver connected climate, biodiversity, and food objectives
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Type
journal article
Date Issued
2024-11-13
Author(s)
Ian J. Bateman
;
Amy Binner
;
Ethan T. Addicott
;
Ben Balmford
;
Frankie H. T. Cho
;
Gretchen C. Daily
;
Anthony De-Gol
;
;
Michela Faccioli
;
Henry Ferguson-Gow
;
Silvia Ferrini
;
Carlo Fezzi
;
Kate Gannon
;
Ben Groom
;
Anna B. Harper
;
Amii Harwood
;
Jon Hillier
;
Mark F. Hulme
;
Christopher F. Lee
;
Lorena Liuzzo
;
Andrew Lovett
;
Mattia C. Mancini
;
Robert Matthews
;
James I. L. Morison
;
Nathan Owen
;
Richard G. Pearson
;
Stephen Polasky
;
Gavin Siriwardena
;
Pete Smith
;
Pat Pat Snowdon
;
Peter Tippett
;
Sylvia H. Vetter
;
Shailaja Vinjili
;
Christian A. Vossler
;
Robert T. Watson
;
Daniel Williamson
;
Brett H. Day
Abstract
Land use change is crucial to addressing the existential threats of climate change and biodiversity loss while enhancing food security [M. Zurek et al., Science 376, 1416–1421 (2022)]. The interconnected and spatially varying nature of the impacts of land use change means that these challenges must be addressed simultaneously [H.-O. Pörtner et al., Science 380, eabl4881 (2023)]. However, governments commonly focus on single issues, incentivizing land use change via “Flat-Rate” subsidies offering constant per hectare payments, uptake of which is determined by the economic circumstances of landowners rather than the integrated environmental outcomes that will be delivered [G. Q. Bull et al., Forest Policy Econ. 9, 13–31 (2006)]. Here, we compare Flat-Rate subsidies to two alternatives: “Land Use Scenario” allocation of subsidies through consultation across stakeholders and interested parties; and a “Natural Capital” approach which targets subsidies according to expected ecosystem service response. This comparison is achieved by developing a comprehensive decision support system, integrating new and existing natural, physical, and economic science models to quantify environmental, agricultural, and economic outcomes. Applying this system to the United Kingdom’s net zero commitment to increase carbon storage via afforestation, we show that the three approaches result in significantly different outcomes in terms of where planting occurs, their environmental consequences, and economic costs and benefits. The Flat-Rate approach actually increases net carbon emissions while Land Use Scenario allocation yields poor economic outcomes. The Natural Capital targeted approach outperforms both alternatives, providing the highest possible social values while satisfying net zero commitments.
HSG Classification
contribution to scientific community
Refereed
Yes
Publisher
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Volume
121
Number
49
Subject(s)