Unemployment and Anti-Immigration Attitudes: Regional and Individual Effects in 13-Year German Panel Data
Type
conference contribution
Date Issued
2025-09-16
Author(s)
Abstract
Group threat theory predicts and finds that in times of economic downturns (i.e., when unemployment levels rise), individuals report higher anti-immigration attitudes. This link is rooted in perceptions of increased competition for scarce economic resources, where immigrants are seen as a threat to job security and financial well-being. In this study, we expand previous research on the relationship between unemployment and anti-immigration attitudes in two ways. First, prior research has predominantly relied on (repeated) cross-sectional designs, limiting causal interpretations. Second, it remains unclear whether the observed link between economic downturns and anti-immigration attitudes reflects a structural effect (where worsening regional economic conditions broadly shape public sentiment) or a cumulative effect of individual unemployment (where personal experiences of job loss drive attitudinal shifts). To address these gaps, we integrate historical regional economic data with 13 years of individual longitudinal data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP; including annually recorded anti-immigration attitudes and detailed employment biographies). Using fixed-effects panel regressions, we provide evidence that rising regional unemployment levels predict increases in individual anti-immigration attitudes. Moreover, we find that this effect persists when controlling for individual unemployment experiences. This highlights a fundamental tenet of group threat theory: not only those directly affected by outgroup competition (i.e., those who become unemployed) develop negative attitudes towards an outgroup perceived as potential threat, but these attitudes seem to permeate throughout the entire ingroup.
Language
English (United States)