Empirical Causality Analysis in Strategic Planning : Revelation of Origin-dependent Sales Drivers in the Automotive Industry

Early indications of environmental changes are crucial to the success of strategic planning. Especially in highly dynamic and complex environments like the German automotive market, knowledge on sales indicators' accuracy and their causal relationship with the company's sales is vital. However, strategic planning science lacks of an objective method to assess sales indicators' prediction relevance. We close this research gap by an empirical analysis applying bivariate vector autoregressions in the German automotive industry which offers new insights into sales' indicators causal relevance for sales planning. Based on the country-of-origin research, we reveal evidence on significant differences in the indicators' relevance dependent on the companies' national origin. This offers a more profound way of setting up forecasting systems for companies' sales, capacity and purchase planning.