J. Peter Murmann

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Individual Foresight: Concept, Operationalization, and Correlates
(2025-10-01)
Benedikt Alexander Schuler
;
J. Peter Murmann
;
Marie Beisemann
;
Ville Satopää
Judgmental forecasting research on superforecasters has demonstrated that individuals differ in their foresight. However, the concept underlying this work focuses on accuracy and does not fully incorporate the time dimension of foresight. We reconceptualize foresight as the ability to predict future states of the world accurately, where accuracy becomes continuously more important over time. To operationalize foresight in forecasting tournaments, we propose various strictly proper scoring rules and compare them with existing scoring rules using a simulation study and real-world forecasting data consisting of 414,168 scores for 9,694 forecasters on 498 questions from a four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament. The results suggest that the linear time-weighted Brier score should be the default operationalization of foresight and that probability training and teaming interventions as proposed by prior research may not improve foresight as we conceptualize it. We contribute to judgmental forecasting research by clarifying the concept, operationalization, and correlates of foresight.
Type:journal article
Journal:International Journal of Forecasting
DOI:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2025.01.003
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/121555
Scopus© Citations 1
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The organizational and technological origins of the U.S. shale gas revolution, 1947 to 2012
(2024-02-01)
Kapoor, Rahul
;
J. Peter Murmann
We explore the origins and the development of hydraulic fracking technology that made possible United States' unexpected rise as a top producer of oil and gas. As hydraulic fracking was first used extensively to produce shale gas and only later to produce shale oil, we focus on analyzing what is often referred to as the "shale gas revolution. " We trace how the shale gas ecosystem evolved, what role different actors played in the unexpected shale gas revolution, and how the strategies and knowledge bases of the different actors differed and evolved over time.
Type:journal article
Journal:oxford Academic
Volume:33
Issue:1
URL:https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtad021
DOI:10.1093/icc/dtad021
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/122016
Scopus© Citations 7
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The organizational and technological origins of the U.S. shale gas revolution, 1947 to 2012
(2024-02-01)
Kapoor, Rahul
;
Johann Peter Murmann
We explore the origins and the development of hydraulic fracking technology that made possible United States' unexpected rise as a top producer of oil and gas. As hydraulic fracking was first used extensively to produce shale gas and only later to produce shale oil, we focus on analyzing what is often referred to as the "shale gas revolution. " We trace how the shale gas ecosystem evolved, what role different actors played in the unexpected shale gas revolution, and how the strategies and knowledge bases of the different actors differed and evolved over time.
Type:journal article
Journal:Industrial and Corporate Change
Volume:33
Issue:1
URL:https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtad021
DOI:10.1093/icc/dtad021
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/119474
Scopus© Citations 7
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Exploring the structure of internal combustion engine and battery electric vehicles: implications for the architecture of the automotive industry
(Oxford Academic, Industrial and Corporate Change Association, 2023-02-01)
Murmann, J. Peter
;
Schuler, Benedikt Alexander
Type:journal article
Journal:Industrial and Corporate Change
Volume:32
Issue:1
DOI:10.1093/icc/dtac049
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/107764
Scopus© Citations 10
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The Rise of China's Digital Economy: An Overview
(2022-08-04)
Jiang, Hong
;
Murmann, J. Peter
Type:journal article
Journal:Management and Organization Review
Issue:18
DOI:10.1017/mor.2022.32
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/108416
Scopus© Citations 116
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A Capabilities Framework for Dynamic Competiton: Assessing the Relative Chances of Incumbents, Start-Ups, and Diversifying Entrants
(2022-12-16)
Murmann, J. Peter
;
Vogt, Fabian
Type:journal article
Journal:Management and Organization Review
Volume:19
Issue:1
DOI:10.1017/mor.2022.37
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/107963
Scopus© Citations 14
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China Innovation Capacity Growth Index 2015 and 2020
(2021-10)
Hochstrasse, Annika
;
Murmann, J. Peter
Type:journal article
Journal:Management and Organization Review
Issue:17:4
DOI:10.1017/mor.2021.59
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/109853
Scopus© Citations 4
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A Dynamic Perspective on Huawei
(Cambridge University Press, 2021-08-23)
Murmann, J. Peter
;
Guo, Bin
;
Huang, Can
Type:journal article
Journal:Management and Organization Review
Volume:19
Issue:5
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/110092
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What Enables a Chinese Firm to Create New-to-the-World Innovations? A Historical Case Study of Intrafirm Coopetition in the Instant Messaging Serivice Sector
(Informs, 2021-08-17)
Murmann, J. Peter
;
Zhu, Zhijing
Type:journal article
DOI:10.1287/stsc.2021.0142
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/110111
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Intra-organizational Coopetition as a Source of New-To-The-World Innovations
(Academy of Management, 2021)
Murmann, Johann Peter
;
Zhu, Zhijing
Type:journal article
Journal:Academy of Management Proceedings
Volume:2021
Issue:1
URL:http://dx.doi.org/10.5465/AMBPP.2021.12106abstract
DOI:10.5465/AMBPP.2021.12106abstract
URI:https://www.alexandria.unisg.ch/handle/20.500.14171/111190

J. Peter Murmann

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