Albert Flak
Last Name
Flak
First name
Albert
Email
albert.flak@unisg.ch
11 results
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Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2024-11-05); ; Oechslin, ManuelExpectation formation is a key element in macroeconomic models. A large literature documents that individuals' expectations are often influenced not only by rational but also by intuitive thinking. In this paper, we propose a tractable dual-system framework in which expectations are formed by both types of thinking. The framework is versatile and can easily be integrated into DSGE models. As an application, we integrate it into a simple New Keynesian model and study the effect of an intuitive "stagflationary model" (higher inflation comes with lower output) that has been frequently found in the recent empirical literature. We derive impulse responses for an "intuitive thinking shock" and show how such a shock can have relatively persistent effects that resemble a supply shock, with no actual supply shock involved. We contribute to the development of tractable alternatives of fully rational expectations, and to the study of how non-fundamental factors can influence fluctuations in macroeconomic series.Type:conference paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Choice Under Fundamental Uncertainty: The Case of Aggregate Consumption(2022-08-23)Type:conference paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Choice Under Fundamental Uncertainty: The Case of Aggregate Consumption(2022-06-23)Type:conference paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Choice Under Fundamental Uncertainty: The Case of Aggregate Consumption(2022-06-14)Type:conference paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy With Intuitive Thinkers(2024); ; Manuel OechslinType:conference contribution - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2024-10-24); ; - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2024); ; Oechslin, ManuelType:conference poster - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2025-04-13); ; Oechslin, ManuelExpectation formation is a key element in macroeconomic models. A large literature documents that individuals' expectations are often influenced not only by rational but also by intuitive thinking. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework in which expectations are a priori formed in a rational thinking mode which, however, gets perturbed by intuitive thinking. The framework captures a range of phenomena. Our main focus is on subjective models of the economy that concern correlation patterns, in particular a subjective "stagflationary model", according to which higher inflation comes with lower output. This pattern has been frequently found in the recent empirical literature on subjective expectations. We derive impulse responses for an "intuitive thinking shock" and show how such a shock can have relatively persistent effects that resemble a supply shock, with no actual supply shock involved. We contribute to the development of tractable alternatives to fully rational expectations, and to the study of how non-fundamental factors can influence fluctuations in macroeconomic series.Type:working paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Choice under Fundamental Uncertainty: The Case of Aggregate Consumption(2025-04-13); ; Oechslin, ManuelWe consider an agent who does not know the data-generating process (DGP) of the economic environment but observes past outcomes. Moreover, the agent considers it possible that the DGP changes in unpredictable ways. In this setting-which we refer to as one of fundamental uncertainty-standard optimal intertemporal choice is not feasible. We provide a model in which the agent makes forward-looking decisions using a future value function that does not depend on any specific information about a DGP. The agent makes forecasts about a subsequent period based on historical analogies. Specifically, we consider the consumption and asset holding decision of a representative agent who earns an exogenous stream of labor income. We calibrate the model to aggregate US data. Despite its simplicity, the model captures the relevant empirical patterns better than a rational expectations model with a comparable degree of flexibility.Type:working paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Teaching an Artificial Central Bank to Conduct Monetary Policy(2025-04-13)This study explores the potential of reinforcement learning to enhance monetary policy design. As an example, I simulate a calibrated, stylised, non-linear economy wherein an artificial policymaker is tasked with setting interest rates to keep inflation close to its goal as well as minimising output gaps and interest rate volatility. The artificial policymaker successfully learns a non-linear decision rule that outperforms benchmark Taylor rules, even under partial information and without knowing the DGP of the economy. The paper illustrates the entire development process, including construction of the simulation, algorithm implementation, policy evaluation and interpretation, to showcase the flexibility and usefulness of the method.Type:working paper