Johannes Binswanger
Title
Prof. Dr.
Last Name
Binswanger
First name
Johannes
Email
johannes.binswanger@unisg.ch
ORCID
Phone
+41 71 224 2514
9 results
Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
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Item type:Publication, Better Statistics, Better Economic Policies?More and more economic transactions leave a "digital footprint". This trend opens unprecedented opportunities for improving economic statistics and underpins demands to give statistical agencies far-reaching access to private-sector data. We analyze the consequences of better economic statistics in a political-agency framework that includes fundamental uncertainty about the impact of potentially welfare-enhancing reforms. We demonstrate that improvements in economic statistics can inhibit - rather than stimulate - reform attempts. With better statistics, the government is less likely to receive the "benefit of the doubt" if the numbers suggest its past reforms are failing. Reforms therefore come with a higher risk of electoral losses, implying that the government has stronger incentives to preserve the status quo. We identify political environments that are particularly vulnerable to this mechanism and contribute to the debate on private-sector data access.Type:journal articleJournal:European Economic ReviewIssue:130Scopus© Citations 4 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, The Economics of Beliefs under Fundamental Uncertainty(2020-12); Oechslin, ManuelIntroducing the concept of “belief entrepreneur”, this paper offers a novel theory on endogenous belief formation under fundamental uncertainty in the sense of \textcite{Knight1921}. We consider a generic setup in which individuals must choose between a tested approach (supplied by a “defender”) and a competing innovative approach (supplied by an “innovator”). While the innovation is promising, its true merits are uncertain (e.g., financial engineering in the 1990s). Facing an ambiguous choice, individuals are susceptible to narratives. The innovator and defender thus act as competing belief entrepreneurs who engage in a narrative contest whose outcome shapes individual prior beliefs. We clarify the conditions under which the contest outcome predominantly reflects information on the merits of the innovation---and when other factors, such as the entrepreneurs’ payoffs, dominate. Our analysis may be helpful to regulators that have to grapple with innovations whose fundamentals they do not know any better than the public.Type:journal articleJournal:Working Paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2024-11-05); ; Oechslin, ManuelExpectation formation is a key element in macroeconomic models. A large literature documents that individuals' expectations are often influenced not only by rational but also by intuitive thinking. In this paper, we propose a tractable dual-system framework in which expectations are formed by both types of thinking. The framework is versatile and can easily be integrated into DSGE models. As an application, we integrate it into a simple New Keynesian model and study the effect of an intuitive "stagflationary model" (higher inflation comes with lower output) that has been frequently found in the recent empirical literature. We derive impulse responses for an "intuitive thinking shock" and show how such a shock can have relatively persistent effects that resemble a supply shock, with no actual supply shock involved. We contribute to the development of tractable alternatives of fully rational expectations, and to the study of how non-fundamental factors can influence fluctuations in macroeconomic series.Type:conference paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy With Intuitive Thinkers(2024); ; Manuel OechslinType:conference contribution - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2024-10-24); ; - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2024); ; Oechslin, ManuelType:conference poster - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Unifying Framework for Distortions in Macroeconomic Expectations(2026-06-29); Flak, AlbertHow much of macroeconomic shock persistence is driven by fundamental propagation versus distorted expectations? To separate these channels for estimation, we develop a unified framework in which agents forecast future states using a misspecified transition for exogenous drivers, and derive identification conditions for jointly estimating belief distortions alongside structural parameters in DSGE models. Our main result is that true shock persistence and belief distortions are locally separately identified via distinct signatures in the observable covariance structure. Yet restricted estimation that omits belief channels forces structural parameters to mimic missing dynamics, generating omitted-channel bias. We illustrate both results in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model, jointly estimating over-persistence bias and diagnostic expectations with Survey of Professional Forecasters data. Risk premium shock persistence drops from 0.57 to 0.25, and peak consumption and real wages following a TFP shock are roughly 30 percent lower under joint estimation. Our results have direct implications for how policymakers assess the persistence and consequences of structural shocks.Type:working paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, A Macroeconomy with Intuitive Thinkers(2025-04-13); ; Oechslin, ManuelExpectation formation is a key element in macroeconomic models. A large literature documents that individuals' expectations are often influenced not only by rational but also by intuitive thinking. In this paper, we propose a tractable framework in which expectations are a priori formed in a rational thinking mode which, however, gets perturbed by intuitive thinking. The framework captures a range of phenomena. Our main focus is on subjective models of the economy that concern correlation patterns, in particular a subjective "stagflationary model", according to which higher inflation comes with lower output. This pattern has been frequently found in the recent empirical literature on subjective expectations. We derive impulse responses for an "intuitive thinking shock" and show how such a shock can have relatively persistent effects that resemble a supply shock, with no actual supply shock involved. We contribute to the development of tractable alternatives to fully rational expectations, and to the study of how non-fundamental factors can influence fluctuations in macroeconomic series.Type:working paper - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Choice under Fundamental Uncertainty: The Case of Aggregate Consumption(2025-04-13); ; Oechslin, ManuelWe consider an agent who does not know the data-generating process (DGP) of the economic environment but observes past outcomes. Moreover, the agent considers it possible that the DGP changes in unpredictable ways. In this setting-which we refer to as one of fundamental uncertainty-standard optimal intertemporal choice is not feasible. We provide a model in which the agent makes forward-looking decisions using a future value function that does not depend on any specific information about a DGP. The agent makes forecasts about a subsequent period based on historical analogies. Specifically, we consider the consumption and asset holding decision of a representative agent who earns an exogenous stream of labor income. We calibrate the model to aggregate US data. Despite its simplicity, the model captures the relevant empirical patterns better than a rational expectations model with a comparable degree of flexibility.Type:working paper