Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Publication
    The Impact of Technological Change
    In this paper I introduce novel measures of technological change, based on counts of books in the field of technology and technological standardization, in an otherwise standard vector autoregressive model, to show the relative importance of unanticipated productivity shocks, technology shocks, and anticipated productivity (news) shocks, in driving macroeconomic fluctuations. The results indicate that news shocks play a more important role than technology shocks at business cycle frequencies, while in the medium- to long-run technology shocks take the lead. Unanticipated productivity shocks do not seem to be a significant source of aggregate fluctuations regardless of the forecast horizon.
  • Publication
    Medium Frequencies in Non-Frontier Economies
    Most countries in the world are not at the technological frontier, yet their economies grow and fluctuate. In this paper we set up a model of endogenous growth with business cycle fluctuations usable to analyze the medium frequency fluctuations in non-frontier countries. The growth mechanism is a Schumpeterian creative destruction framework, which is embedded into a real business cycle dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, with standard and non-standard features. We allow for multinational firms entering the economy and challenging existing incumbents, and study the tension between their direct positive productivity contribution and their indirect negative contribution through the expected obsolescence of domestic innovators. We calibrate the model and show, via simulations, the potential value added from our prototype model.