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    The Missing Link: Technological Change, Dual VET, and Social Policy Preferences
    (Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2026-04-07) ; ;
    Durazzi, Niccolo
    How does technological change affect social policy preferences? We advance this lively debate by focusing on the role of dual vocational education and training (VET). Existing literature would lead us to expect that dual VET increases demand for compensatory social policy and magnifies the effect of automation risk on such demands. In contrast, we contend that dual VET weakens demand for compensatory social policy through three non-mutually exclusive mechanisms that we refer to as (i) material self-interest; (ii) workplace socialization; and (iii) skill certification. We further hypothesize that dual VET mitigates the association between automation risk and social policy preferences. Analyzing cross-national individual data from the European Social Survey and national-level data on education systems, we find strong evidence for our argument. The paper advances the debate on social policy preferences in the age of automation and sheds new light on the relationship between skill formation and social policy preferences.
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    Who Counts? Non-Citizen Residents, Spatial Sorting, and Malapportionment
    Existing research argues that malapportionment primarily favours rural areas, resulting in conservative biases of electoral systems. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on the study of apportionment processes by identifying the institutional design under which malapportionment may favour other regions. Because of the geographical sorting of non-citizen residents, we argue that regions with high shares of non-citizen residents benefit from population-based apportionment, whereas the spatial sorting of non-citizens does not affect malapportionment in the case of citizen-based apportionment. Empirically, we use sub-national data from ten advanced democracies to forward evidence that differences in apportionment mechanisms and district-level shares of non-citizen residents systematically influence malapportionment. Our findings suggest that the impact of malapportionment on political representation and public policies may be more heterogeneous than previously thought.
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    Scopus© Citations 1
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    Meeting the Twin Challenge in Times of Labor Shortage: How Modern Societies Promote Future Skills for the Digital and Green Transitions
    (Wiley, 2025-10-31)
    Carstensen, Martin B.
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    Durazzi, Niccolo
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    Gingrich, Jane
    ABSTRACT The twin transition to a digital and green economy has placed skill formation at the center of efforts to sustain competitiveness. Reforming skill formation systems poses enduring dilemmas on how to balance concerns about economic efficiency with social inclusion while securing employer commitment. The context of significant uncertainty brought on by the twin transition—placed at all levels, from individuals to firms to the state—amplifies the challenge of building effective skills ecosystems. We argue that the central question is no longer about whether governments should intervene but instead about how to govern skill formation under profound uncertainty. The task is to design institutions that are flexible enough to adapt to shifting technological and ecological demands while stable enough to sustain political coalitions and social inclusion. We argue that effective skills ecosystems for the twin transition must combine political stability with the capacity to embrace—rather than reduce—economic uncertainty.
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    Scopus© Citations 5
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    Vox Populi: Popular Support for the Popular Initiative
    (2025-02-03)
    LUCAS LEEMANN
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    Direct democratic institutions are often introduced by popular vote, but there is little research on what motivates voters to support these new instruments. Using a unique dataset on the ideological positions of voters and members of parliament, this article examines support for the introduction of the initiative right in a popular vote. We find that voters support the initiative right when they are inadequately represented in parliament. Moreover, the analysis shows that the voting behavior is consistent with voters understanding the strategic implications of adopting the popular initiative. We demonstrate that voters support its adoption if they are ideologically more proximate to the median voter than they are to the median legislator. Finally, the article shows that ideological distance matters for voters of the ruling party as well, which helps explain why a majority of voters support a political institution that limits the ruling party’s room for maneuver.
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    Scopus© Citations 5
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    Municipality-Level Outcomes of Direct-Democratic Votes in Switzerland, 1866-2023.
    (John Wiley & Sons (United Kingdom), 2025-03) ;
    Leemann, Lucas
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    Switzerland relies heavily on direct-democratic institutions to decide on a wide range of political issues. Since 1848, more than 600 direct-democratic votes have taken place at the national level. However, the lack of comprehensive data has limited the systematic use of these votes for research. This paper introduces a new dataset containing municipality-level outcomes for all direct-democratic votes from 1866 to 1944, and supplements post-1945 data to fill gaps in previous collections. Spanning over 150 years, the new dataset contains more than 1.3 million observations. Several empirical illustrations demonstrate the dataset's potential for research.
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    Scopus© Citations 1
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    Scopus© Citations 3
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    Zukunft der Arbeit: Geschlechtervergleich in der Berufsorientierung im Zeitalter der Künstlichen Intelligenz
    This study examines how young people perceive their professional future in an increasingly AI-driven world and which gender-specific differences exist. In an online survey (N = 2144) conducted in Switzerland, secondary school students assessed their AI empowerment. A vignette experiment investigated the impact of augmentation strategies on the perception of ICT careers. The results show that girls feel less empowered in dealing with AI than boys. Dialogue-oriented augmentation strategies could help make AI-related careers more attractive to young women. Educational institutions and companies could build on these insights to foster a future-oriented mindset and strengthen young people’s ability to collaborate with AI.
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    Scopus© Citations 3
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    Partisan districting and the adoption of proportional representation: gerrymandering and its discontents
    Electoral engineering strategies in majoritarian electoral systems, in particular the possibility to contain insurgent parties by manipulating electoral districts for partisan gain, are key determinants of parties’ positions on the adoption of proportional representation (PR). Providing both qualitative and quantitative evidence, this paper demonstrates that partisan districting can be an effective strategy to protect incumbent parties’ dominant political positions. In addition, it shows how insurgent parties push for the adoption of PR to end the practice of partisan districting. Finally, it demonstrates that incumbents – in the face of increasing electoral threats – cling to the existing majoritarian system if partisan districting allows them to influence vote-seat distortions in their favor. Together, these findings suggest that the possibility to contain insurgent parties by means of partisan districting is an important but overlooked alternative to the adoption of PR. Moreover, by demonstrating that vote-seat distortions moderate the relationship between district-level electoral threats and legislators’ support for PR adoption, this paper offers an important corrective to Stein Rokkan’s influential electoral threat thesis.
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    Scopus© Citations 2
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    Landholding Inequality, Social Control, and Mass Opposition to Suffrage Extension
    Does landholding inequality undermine democratization? Recent contributions have challenged the argument that landholding elites oppose suffrage extension if geographically fixed assets are unequally distributed. We advance research on this long-standing question by exploiting exogenous variance to reinvestigate the relationship. Using multiple instruments, we find that landholding inequality decreases support for suffrage extension. By focusing on traditional patterns of social control, we explore an empirically neglected mechanism linking landholding inequality and democratization. Taking advantage of four direct democratic votes between 1866 and 1877 in Switzerland, we demonstrate that landholding inequality also influences the political preferences of ordinary citizens who do not control these resources. This paper shows that high levels of landholding inequality provide local elites with the incentive and the means to align the local population's voting behaviour with their political goals. Supplementary analyses using qualitative and quantitative data further substantiate this social control mechanism.
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    Scopus© Citations 5