Lukas Fleisch
Last Name
Fleisch
First name
Lukas
Email
lukas.fleisch@unisg.ch
Phone
+41 71 224 38 24
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Item type:Publication, From Static To Dynamic Costing: Managing External Volatility and Evaluating Supply Chain Configurations in MTO Manufacturing(2026); ; Manufacturing firms face growing exposure to volatile and uncertain global markets. Particularly in make to-order (MTO) environments involving complex, large-scale machinery and equipment, long project lead times amplify the impact of external cost fluctuations on competitiveness and profitability. To date, limited attention has been given to how firms can systematically integrate dynamic external market factors into early-stage project costing. This study addresses this gap through an in-depth single case within the Swiss mechanical engineering industry. Using a Design Science Research (DSR) approach, a conceptual framework and cost prediction tool were developed to capture the effects of dynamically changing cost factors - such as wages, exchange rates, and material prices - on distinct cost components, including in-house production, external devices, and service activities. The framework was operationalized in a dynamic cost model employing exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) time-series forecasting based on monthly historical data. The findings demonstrate that exchange-rate fluctuations and regional cost differentials can materially alter projected project margins and reshape the relative attractiveness of alternative production locations and associated supply chain configurations. This study contributes to the literature on MTO costing and adaptive supply chain configuration under uncertainty by showing how external market volatility can be operationalized within early-stage decision processes. For practitioners, this tool provides early cost transparency and supports the evaluation of alternative supply chain configurations and pricing decisions.Type:conference paperJournal:Conference on Production Systems and LogisticsDOI:10.15488/21009